Sizing up the Kentucky Derby field (Part I of III)

Horseracing Betting Lines

04/22/2008 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The field for the 134th running of the Kentucky Derby won't be made official until next week, but as the Lexington Stakes closed out the 2008 Derby preps, the compilation of the graded earnings list, which dictates which horses will be able to set foot at Churchill Downs, is now complete. That's not to say we now know which 20 will be in the starting gate come May 3, since the owners and trainers of a few horses still have to give the "thumbs up" sign, but we are indeed closer to seeing which horses will be able to run for the blanket of roses.

When discussing the graded earnings list, it's important to mention that Salute the Sarge and Massive Drama, two horses currently in the top 20, will not be pointed to Kentucky, thereby giving the connections of both Visionaire and Big Truck the security they need to be able to compete on the first Saturday in May.

There are three more that are questionable to race, and among them is Behindatthebar, the recent winner of the Lexington run this past Saturday at Keeneland. He's won his last two starts impressively, but both have come in a span of 17 days and if he were to run in the Derby, it would be his third race in one month, which is the exact opposite of how thoroughbreds are prepped these days.

Another potential problem for the son of Forest Wildcat is the lack of a nine- furlong race on his profile. It's not a necessary component for a Derby winner to have won at the 1 1/8-distance, but it's almost imperative for a horse to have at least raced nine panels. Trainer Todd Pletcher is not too keen on sending him into the fray, but how can he tell the owners of a Derby qualifier to stay away from Kentucky?

The other two on the list are the two fillies trained by Larry Jones. Of the pair, Eight Belles is the one Jones has been marketing as the probable Derby starter, while Proud Spell will most likely end up in the Kentucky Oaks.

Eight Belles has won four straight races, including three consecutive stakes events at Oaklawn Park. However, unlike the three previous fillies that have won the Kentucky Derby, Eight Belles has yet to defeat, or even face, the colts.

Regret raced exclusively against the boys throughout most of her early career, while Winning Colors won the Santa Anita Derby prior to defeating Forty Niner and Risen Star in the 1988 "Run for the Roses."

Genuine Risk did not defeat the colts until the Kentucky Derby, but she did finish third to Plugged Nickle and Colonel Moran in the Wood Memorial. As a side note, yours truly missed the boat by one race back in 1980, wagering on the filly in the Wood, but not in the Derby. In addition, Eight Belles, as is the case with Behindatthebar, has never run the 1 1/8-distance so it's doubtful she will win the race if entered.

Which horses on the proverbial earnings bubble list will benefit from the subtraction of one and/or possibly two slots ahead of them? Bob Black Jack is almost certain to get into the field, while the odds are 50-50 for Denis of Cork, and the only way Halo Najib makes it is if all three aren't entered, which is a bit of a reach.

LONGSHOTS WITH ZERO CHANCE TO WIN THE DERBY

Since it's highly unlikely Halo Najib will be in the starting gate, there's no reason to spend much space on the chestnut son of Halo's Image. Suffice to say, he would be one of the longshots if he somehow finds a spot in the field. In four grade one/two races over one mile in his career, he finished off the board three times, along with a second in the extremely weak Lane's End Stakes at Turfway Park.

Anak Nakal is another horse that will be 50-1 or higher, but unlike Halo Najib, the Nick Zito-trained colt is a definite Derby starter. The son of 1998 Belmont winner Victory Gallup has had the worst three-year-old campaign of any of the possible entries in the race, opening up his 2008 season with an extremely lackluster eighth-place finish in the Fountain of Youth. He followed that effort by running seventh in the Rebel before taking fifth in the Wood Memorial.

Cool Coal Man, another colt trained by Zito, has a much better chance of finishing in the top 10, but this is a horse that many handicappers feel wasn't even the best horse in the race when he defeated Elysium Fields in the Fountain of Youth back in February.

The son of 2003 Horse of the Year Mineshaft returned to the track in the Blue Grass and finished a dismal ninth. Some folks are throwing that effort out, claiming that he just didn't appreciate the Polytrack surface at Keeneland, but it wasn't as if he didn't pick up a hoof, as was the case with Pyro. Cool Coal Man was third behind Cowboy Cal and Monba for most of the first six furlongs, but wasn't good enough when the real running began.

There are three more horses I would be shocked to see hit the wire first on the first Saturday in May and they are: Big Truck, Z Humor and Recapturetheglory.

Big Truck was another entry in the Blue Grass who ran much worse than his record indicated. The son of Hook and Ladder only beat one horse, the 74-1 longshot Stone Bird, but had a wide trip and didn't show his usual solid closing kick. Still, he ran his final furlong in 12 4/5 and his final three in 37 3/5, which are the exact same fractional times Z Fortune came home while running second in the Arkansas Derby.

This horse does have some ability, but his two worst races on fast tracks just happened to be his only two attempts at nine furlongs. In addition, his closing kick is not in the class of other "come from behind" horses such as Pyro, Denis of Cork or even Visionaire. One other nugget to chew on is that the last time a horse won the Derby after finishing worse than fourth in his previous race came way back in 1957, and Big Truck ran 11th in the Blue Grass.

WHICH HORSE COULD FINISH LAST?

Recapturetheglory and Z Humor both come out of the Illinois Derby, and while the former earned a Beyer number of 102 for winning the race, it's doubtful he will be able to maintain a forward position in the Kentucky Derby.

The son of Cherokee Run could find himself on the lead in the early going, but with Big Brown, Bob Black Jack, Gayego and Cowboy Cal all breathing down his neck, it's entirely possible he could finish dead last, especially with a pedigree more suited to seven furlongs, much less 10.

If any horse in the Derby field has the ability to "bounce," Recapturetheglory is the prime candidate. Not only did he produce a Beyer figure 16 points higher than he had ever run before, speed on the rail was holding up all day long at Hawthorne on April 5. In addition, not a single one of the top five horses had even changed racing positions from the half-mile pole to the wire.

One other reason why Recapturetheglory is a great bet to finish last is he will be asked to do something on Derby day he has never done before in a route race, and that's run a first half-mile faster than his three-year-old best of 48 2/5. If he indeed will be on the lead in Kentucky, as he has been in his last three races, he will have to run his first half approximately 10 lengths faster than he's been doing of late. Keep in mind that the slowest first-half mile in the last five runnings of the Derby was 46 3/5.

Z Humor, third to Recapturetheglory in the Illinois Derby, has come up empty in his three starts in '08, with his best finish coming in the race at Hawthorne and if there wasn't such a pronounced track bias that day, he would have ran fifth, beaten double digits. Prior to that event, the Bill Mott- trained colt ran a non-threatening fourth in the Fountain of Youth, and a tiring fifth in the Sam F. Davis.

There are 14 horses left to discuss. This weekend's column will focus on the next set of seven that are not likely to win the Derby, but have much more of a fighter's chance than the three-year-olds listed above.

(This article is the first of three Kentucky Derby columns that will run prior to the post-position draw on Wednesday, April 30. Stay tuned the day before the race for the final piece, which will be chock full of analysis along with predicted odds and selections.)