New Orleans Saints 2007 Draft Preview

Football Betting Lines

04/04/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Saints defense was held together with duct tape last season, and the New Orleans brass wasn't delusional enough to believe the team could get by under similar circumstances in 2007. Head coach Sean Payton has spoken publicly of the need for cornerback help, another linebacker will be required to go along with free agent pickup Brian Simmons, and a front-line run-stopper would be a credit to a club that struggled against rushing attacks last year. On offense, Joe Horn is now an Atlanta Falcon and the Saints need to locate a credible complement to Marques Colston at receiver. Five different players appeared at tight end for New Orleans a year ago, and it is not unthinkable that Payton and GM Mickey Loomis would look in that direction on the first day as well. The offensive line overachieved in 2006, and the franchise needs more depth in that department.

2006 Record: 10-6

First Pick: No. 27

Number of Selections: 8 (1, 2, 3, 4, 4, 4, 5, 7)

RECENT FIRST ROUND HISTORY: 2006 - Reggie Bush (RB, USC); 2005 - Jammal Brown (T, Oklahoma); 2004 - Will Smith (DE, Ohio State); 2003 - Johnathan Sullivan (DT, Georgia); 2002 - Donte' Stallworth (WR, Tennessee), Charles Grant (DE, Georgia); 2001 - Deuce McAllister (RB, Mississippi); 2000 - none; 1999 - Ricky Williams (RB, Texas); 1998 - Kyle Turley (OT, San Diego State); 1997 - Chris Naeole (OG, Colorado); 1996 - Alex Molden (CB, Colorado); 1995 - Mark Fields (LB, Washington State); 1994 - Joe Johnson (DE, Louisville); 1993 - Willie Roaf (OT, Louisiana Tech), Irv Smith (TE, Notre Dame); 1992 - Vaughn Dunbar (RB, Indiana); 1991 - none; 1990 - Renaldo Turnbull (DE/LB, West Virginia).

Sprtsline Football Betting News

<< Carolina Panthers 2007 Draft Preview
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Panthers had glaring weaknesses at linebacker and on the offensive line last year, and though both positions should be healthier in 2007, upgrades are also needed. With top tackler Chris Draft now a member of the Rams and

<< D-Backs, Rockies play rubber match at Coors
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of pitchers will make debuts with their new clubs this afternoon when the Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies conclude their three-game series at Coors Field. Left-hander Doug Davis was acquired by Arizona in

<< Philadelphia Eagles 2007 Draft Preview
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Outside linebacker and defensive tackle were two of the Eagles' biggest need areas entering the offseason, but a trade for ex-Bill Takeo Spikes and the acquisition of former Colt Montae Reagor helped offset those respective r

<< Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2007 Draft Preview
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - If he is still available at No. 4, there is no way the Buccaneers can pass up Georgia Tech wide receiver Calvin Johnson. However, if another team trades up to snatch Johnson with one of the first three picks, it won't be the

<< San Francisco 49ers 2007 Draft Preview
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Niners are in major need of a No. 1 receiver after releasing Antonio Bryant, and might have to look long and hard at multi- talented Ohio State standout Ted Ginn, Jr. There are also secondary needs, though the signings of

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Bronx, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Andy Pettitte's much anticipated return to the Bronx will have to wait as Wednesday's game between the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Devil Rays at Yankee Stadium has been postponed due to rain. No makeup da

Washington Redskins 2007 Draft Preview >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Washington places little to no value on the draft, as evidenced by the fact that it has one pick among the first 142 and has an NFL- low five selections overall. Which isn't to say that the Redskins are without needs, particu

Detroit Lions 2007 Draft Preview >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - For all the speculation about the Lions taking Brady Quinn, Calvin Johnson, or trading down for multiple picks, it would still fly in the face of the logic if GM Matt Millen does anything other than draft Wisconsin left tackl

Cain hopes to get Giants on track against San Diego >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Young Matt Cain officially takes hold of the No. 2 starting slot in the San Francisco Giants rotation tonight when they host the San Diego Padres in game two of their three-game curtain-raising series at AT&T Park. Cain,

New York Giants 2007 Draft Preview >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Giants have two gaping holes to fill. One is at left tackle, where Luke Petitgout was released (and subsequently became a Buccaneer), and Bob Whitfield retired. Trouble is, the only two tackles with bona fide first-round

How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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