Dunlap, Sisk share Mylan Classic lead

Golf Betting Lines

09/02/2010 - Canonsburg, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Scott Dunlap and Geoffrey Sisk both carded rounds of six-under 65 on Thursday to share the 18-hole lead at the inaugural Mylan Classic.

Dunlap and Sisk collected eight birdies and two bogeys apiece on the Southpointe course to take a one-stroke lead over seven players, including Tommy Gainey.

With two victories already this season, Gainey is seeking an automatic promotion to the PGA Tour, rewarded to any player who wins three Nationwide Tour events in the same season.

Two other players -- money leader Chris Kirk and Martin Piller -- have also won twice this season, but neither one is in the field this week to compete with Gainey.

Joining Gainey at 66 were Dicky Pride, Brent Delahoussaye, Brian Smock, Jonathan Kaye, Paul Stankowski and Bronson La'Cassie.

PGA Tour player Rocco Mediate, a native of nearby Greensburg, Pa., led a six- way tie at 67 after making his first career start in a Nationwide Tour event.

Dunlap is a 47-year-old grinder whose career stretches back to the inaugural Nationwide Tour season in 1990. He has captured two wins on the developmental tour, the last coming in Panama in 2008.

On Thursday, Dunlap played in the second group off the No. 1 tee and made an early bogey at the second hole. But he bounced back with three birdies to shoot a 33 on the front nine.

Dunlap started birdie-bogey on the back nine, but later birdied four of his final five holes to get into the clubhouse with the early lead.

Sisk started on the 10th tee and birdied six of his first seven holes, shooting a 30 on the back nine. He followed with an up-and-down front nine, making two birdies and two bogeys to join Dunlap atop the leaderboard.

The 45-year-old Sisk has never finished better than a tie for third place on tour. He has missed the cut in 11 of his 17 starts this season.

Sam Saunders, the grandson of Arnold Palmer, opened with a 70 while playing on a sponsor's exemption. Palmer is the tournament's honorary chairman and a native of Latrobe, Pa.

NOTES: Mediate was eligible for the Mylan Classic because he did not qualify for the PGA Tour playoffs...Dunlap was a two-time winner on the Canadian Tour in the 1990s.

Sprtsline Golf Betting News

<< Steelers' Leftwich hurts left knee
PITTSBURGH (AP) - Steelers quarterback Byron Leftwich, expected to start during Ben Roethlisberger's suspension, has injured his left knee during the first half of an exhibition game against Carolina.Leftwich completed an 18-yard pass to rookie Emma

<< Avalanche sign Stewart for two years
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Colorado Avalanche signed restricted free- agent forward Chris Stewart to a two-year deal on Thursday. The 22-year-old led the Avs with 28 goals and ranked second in points with 64 over 77 regular-season

<< Preds ownership completes Del Biaggio buyout
Nashville, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nashville Predators chairman Tom Cigarran announced on Thursday that the current ownership group has completed the purchase of remaining ownership shares from jailed former investor William "Boots"

<< Iowa to extend Ferentz through 2020
Iowa City, IA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Iowa announced Thursday it plans to extend the contract of head football coach Kirk Ferentz through the 2020 season. School officials expect Ferentz to sign the contract Friday. The Hawkeyes begin the

<< Marlins C Baker to have elbow surgery
Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Florida Marlins catcher John Baker is headed for Tommy John surgery on Friday. The Miami Herald reported Thursday that Baker, who has not played since May 12, will undergo a procedure to repair a damaged

Santana leaves game against Atlanta >>
Atlanta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New York Mets pitcher Johan Santana left his start against the Atlanta Braves after five innings on Thursday. Santana had limited the Braves to just one run and three hits with a walk and three strikeouts.

NCAA rules Alabama DE Dareus ineligible for two games >>
Tuscaloosa, AL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The NCAA has declared Alabama defensive end Marcell Dareus ineligible for two games due to his dealings with sports agents. In its ruling, the NCAA said Dareus must repay benefits to become eligi

Twins' Baker leaves game >>
Minneapolis, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Minnesota Twins starter Scott Baker left Thursday's game against Detroit because of right elbow pain. Baker did not return for the start of the third after giving up two runs in two innings. He allowe

Steelers QB Leftwich injures knee >>
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Byron Leftwich hurt his left knee during the second quarter of the team's final preseason game against Carolina. Leftwich completed an 18-yard pass to Emmanuel San

Santana departs early, but Mets hold off Braves >>
Atlanta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Johan Santana left after five innings, but limited Atlanta to just one run as the New York Mets avoided a four-game sweep at the hands of the Braves with a 4-2 win. Santana (11-9) left the game with a s

How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.

Big Ten Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Michigan State, Indiana
Work left to do: Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa

Behind the big two, the pecking order might be in a bit of flux. Has Michigan State passed Indiana after handling the Hoosiers in East Lansing? Where is Illinois in that mix? What looked like a four-big league last week could be morphing into five -- and even six is not unthinkable at this point if everything breaks right.

Should be in:

Michigan State [21-8 (8-6), RPI: 20, SOS: 15] The Spartans made it four-for-four on the homestand, a gigantic accomplishment that leaves them in extremely good shape. MSU is only 1-6 on the road and is at Michigan and at Wisconsin to close things out, meaning the date with the Wolverines on Tuesday looms very, very large. Beating Texas early will hold up well, as will the rout of Bradley and the win over BYU, but will 8-8 be enough? It very well could be, as the computer numbers are good, but why chance it?

Indiana [18-9 (8-6), RPI: 24, SOS: 32] Hmm ... good thing the last two are at Northwestern and home to Penn State, because IU might want to get both to feel completely safe after dropping its third in the last four, fading after halftime at Michigan State. Who knew the best nonconference win would be over Southern Illinois, which is a gift that keeps on giving for the Hoosiers. The win over Wisconsin also looks good on the mantel.

Work left to do:

Illinois [21-9 (9-6), RPI: 31, SOS: 25] A good performance at Penn State leaves the Illini in pretty good shape. Can they go to Iowa and take care of business to really look on their way? That's a huge game, as there is a possible cluster of teams that will end at 9-7. Illinois beat Bradley, but has lost to Xavier. A 9-7 mark and a semifinals trip in Chicago could be enough with the computer profile hanging in there, but it would be better not to mess around, clinching at least a tie for third.

Purdue [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 28] Couldn't get it done at Iowa, but did win at Northwestern to put 9-7 squarely in sight. Where does that leave the Boilermakers, though? Even if they beat Minnesota and Northwestern at home, that won't help the computer numbers. Nonconference wins over Virginia, DePaul and Oklahoma are solid, but not spectacular. The Boilers very well might need an upset in the B10 quarters to have a legit claim.

Michigan [19-10 (7-7), RPI: 55, SOS: 53] Well, Michigan did what it needed to do, winning at Minnesota to take control of its fate. The Wolverines have Michigan State and an already-wrapped-up-the-league Ohio State at home to close, so the chances are there. Win both and we can talk. There is no marquee win yet in the profile, and the Wolverines were splattered in several games against name opponents. A mediocre computer profile fueled by a lack of road wins isn't helping, either.

Iowa [16-12 (8-6), RPI: 80, SOS: 64] For the sake of being complete, we'll add Iowa, this season's Stanford. It's plausible that the Hawkeyes could get to 10-6 (at Penn State, vs. Illinois left), but where does that leave them after a gruesome nonconference performance where the best win was over ... Toledo? Iowa State? Cornell?? If they get to 10-6, we can start to look at what they need to do in the B10 tourney, although my gut sense is that they would need to make the final and have knocked off Ohio State or Wisconsin on the way to have any real claim.

For more College Basketball betting lines go to MySportsbook.com

Additional sports lines can be found at: www.Sportsbooks.com

To bet on March Madness games this online sportsbook accepts credit cards.