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10/23/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After starting the season 0-4, the New Orleans Saints are treating every game like a must-win.
That's just fine for Reggie Bush, who ran for 54 yards and added five receptions for 19 yards and the game's biggest score as New Orleans outlasted Atlanta, 22-16, on Sunday.
The game wasn't pretty, but the Saints pulled it out. On the flip side, New Orleans looked bad enough for even the most optimistic fan to note that the Falcons have been utterly dreadful this season and the Saints still just barely got by them.
What does that say for a team which is now two wins shy of getting back to .500 at the midpoint of the season? Are these the real New Orleans Saints, now riding the momentum of back-to-back victories and getting the production out of Bush that they expected all along? And will they be content with the fact that, for now, they only have to be a little bit better than the other team?
Or is this the same team that looked nearly unrevivable a few short weeks ago, consistently trumped by the numbers on the scoreboard and plagued by the old mantra, "Everything that can go wrong will go wrong?"
"I think we have played better football and as a result we have won a couple of games," said head coach Sean Payton. "There is a lot to improve in without even looking at the tape. We have to be consistent on a number of things.
"I think it is a work in progress. The thing about this league is that you are what your record says you are. Fortunately, we have been able to get a couple of wins, but we have a long way to go. Our players understand that."
LATE GAME HEROICS
The Falcons, trailing by a point heading to the fourth quarter, took a 16-14 lead on Morten Andersen's 21-yard field goal with 10:22 remaining in the contest.
The Saints answered with an efficient 69-yard, 11-play drive, capped by a four-yard swing pass from Drew Brees to Bush with 5:04 remaining. Bush caught the ball at the two-yard line, shrugged off three defenders (and a would-be tackle by Falcons' cornerback Lewis Sanders) and dove across the goal line to put New Orleans back on top for good.
Bush wasn't done, however, as he swept around the right end and dove for the pylon to complete the two-point conversion, giving the Saints a 22-16 edge with about five minutes to play.
"We were just trying to catch the defense off guard," said Bush. "We ran it quick. We really didn't want to give them a chance to get set. They were bringing personnel when we were getting set. That obviously helped us out a lot. We caught them off guard. As far as the two-point conversion, it's a play we normally run quite a bit. We hadn't run it all game. It was the perfect call in the right situation."
Then, after the Falcons punted with less than two minutes left, Bush sewed up the victory with a seven-yard run that gave the Saints a first down and enabled them to run out the clock.
NEAR-DOMINANT "D"
The defense kept the Saints in the game for a third straight week, giving up only a couple of big plays while Atlanta managed just three field goals and one touchdown.
The Saints didn't blitz nearly as often as they did a week ago at Seattle, but they got enough pressure on Atlanta's Byron Leftwich and Joey Harrington, finishing with three sacks (credited to Charles Grant, Brian Young and Kendrick Clancy), while strong safety Roman Harper led the way with six tackles.
Leftwich went 15-of-23 for 145 yards and a touchdown but was knocked out of the game in the second quarter with a sprained ankle, while Harrington finished 12-of-18 for 128 yards.
The Saints defense also didn't force any turnovers, but the Falcons did lose some ground on three fumbles, and each time, they were eventually forced to punt.
"We knew it was a game that was going to come down to the wire," said Saints linebacker Scott Fujita, who finished with four tackles. "We expected it to be a tough game, one of those days where you come early and stay late. Our defense today stepped up and made plays when we had to. When it counted and we had to make plays we did. It starts with the guys up front, those guys played huge today, they put a lot of pressure in the quarterback's face, and that was something that we needed to get done."
WILL THE REAL DREW BREES PLEASE STAND UP?
After a strong performance against the Seahawks last week, Brees completed just 22-of-34 passes for 219 yards, with two TDs and one interception against Atlanta. He also failed to establish a rhythm throughout the game, as the Saints converted just 4-of-12 attempts on third-down.
While Brees' performance wasn't alarmingly bad, he has now tossed a league- leading 10 interceptions this season and has a QB rating of 69.1.
Still, Brees tried to accentuate the positives after Sunday's victory, including a 37-yard touchdown pass to Devery Henderson in the first quarter.
"That was big. Especially early on, it was a way to get this game started," Brees noted. "We got in great field position on the punt return and went three-and-out but then came back the next time and got into one of those situations where we expected them to be playing the coverage that they did and we were able to get Devery up through a hole. Obviously he made a nice catch and it was a great way to get the whole thing started. It was a big play touchdown that we've been talking about for the last few weeks and getting back to the big plays that we used to make."
UP NEXT
In a clash of two teams going in opposite directions, the Saints are heading to San Francisco to battle the 49ers, who won their first two games of the season but have dropped their last four.
This trip could be another step for New Orleans to get back in a mediocre NFC South race, but they need Bush to remain a prominent threat on the ground and through the air.
The last time these two teams met, the Saints were riding a three-game win streak that catapulted them into the playoffs. They also had the services of Deuce McAllister, who ran roughshod over the Niners then, but won't be a factor now.
This could be another ugly game for New Orleans, which looks to be in for a tightly-contested battle.
"They are coming off of a tough loss and going out to San Francisco to play is difficult," Payton added. "It's loud and they have a lot of history and tradition and have played well traditionally at home. The focus starts with us, and doing all the little things specifically that give us the best chance to win. We know we are playing a team that is hungry for a win. They started off fairly strong and have slowed down of late, but it is going to be a challenge for us going on the road, we will have our work cut out for us."
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Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."
When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules.
The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.
The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.
“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”
The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.
“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”
The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.
“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”
Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.
“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."
So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?
“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.
Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.
Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.
Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.
“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.
Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.
The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.
“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.
Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.
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