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08/28/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's been a few years since there has been a bonus for sweeping the Triple Crown races. During the time that VISA sponsored the bonus, no three-year-old thoroughbred won the three classics, Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes.
Now, MI Developments Inc. has announced a bonus program involving winning the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course and specified prep races at company owned racetracks. The name of the program is PREAKNESS 5.5. The 5.5 represents the $5.5 million that would be up for grabs by owners and trainers.
The tracks involved are all owned by MID: Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita Park and Golden Gate Fields. The $5.5 million bonus will be shared between the winning owner ($5 million) and trainer ($500,000).
"The purpose of this grand prize is to provide a spectacular event for the fans and to create a potential life changing experience for the stakeholders of the racing industry," stated Frank Stronach, Chairman of MID. "These events represent the greatest hope for the renewal of the thoroughbred racing business in America. Our continued development of MID's recently acquired assets should translate into improved results across MID Racing Properties' asset base."
In order to receive the bonus money horses prepping for the Triple Crown at the designated tracks must win at least two stakes races for three-year-olds.
At Gulfstream Park a horse must win either the Holy Bull Stakes or the Fountain of Youth, and also capture the Florida Derby on Sunday, April 3, 2011. The purse for the Florida and the Santa Anita Derbies have each been raised to $1 million.
At Santa Anita Park, before claiming the Santa Anita Derby a horse must win either the Robert B. Lewis or San Felipe Stakes. A horse can also qualify by winning the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields and then win the Santa Anita Derby.
"Gulfstream and Santa Anita have long and storied traditions of producing the finest three-year-olds in the country," said Gulfstream Park General Manager, Steve Calabro. "I expect this will produce Gulfstream's finest winter racing."
A consolation prize will also be offered sponsored by XpressBet. This will be called XpressBet .55. If the winner of the 2011 Preakness is not eligible for the Preakness $5.5 million bonus, the winning owner would get $500,000 and the winning trainer $50,000. However, the Preakness winning horse must have been a runner in one of the initial qualifying races and finished first, second or third in the Santa Anita or the Florida Derbies.
"I am really excited to support the owners and breeders in the 2011 three- year-old season," said Ron Luniewski, President of XpressBet. "As we move towards the three-year-old season, we will be offering some fun wagers based on the Preakness 5.5 and the XpressBet .55."
Any new idea that can increase interest in thoroughbred racing must be commended. I would like to see more bonus programs created spanning races over an entire year.
A logical one would involve the Haskell Invitational, Travers Stakes and Pennsylvania Derby. All are $1 million stakes for three-year-olds during the summer and early fall.
<< Leafs sign MacArthur for one year
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Free-agent forward Clarke MacArthur was
signed to a one-year contract with the Toronto Maple Leafs on Saturday.
Terms of the deal were not disclosed, but TSN of Canada reported the deal is
worth $1.1
<< Chiefs' Sheffield released from hospital
Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kansas City Chiefs linebacker Cameron
Sheffield has been released from the hospital after suffering a neck injury in
Friday's preseason game against Philadelphia.
Sheffield, who has movement in all hi
<< Wigan shocks Spurs
London, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Hugo Rodallega's goal 10 minutes from time
handed Wigan an unlikely 1-0 win over Tottenham at White Hart Lane on
Saturday.
The result came just a few days after Tottenham sealed a place in the
<< USA routs Croatia in Worlds opener
Istanbul, Turkey (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Eric Gordon sank four three-pointers and
scored 16 points, as the United States crushed Croatia, 106-78, in its opening
contest of the 2010 FIBA World Championship.
Kevin Durant added 14 points for the
Defending champ ousted at U.S. Amateur >>
University Place, WA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Defending champion Byeong-Hun An was
ousted from the U.S. Amateur on Saturday, losing on the last hole of his
semifinal match.
Trying to become the first back-to-back champion since Tiger Woods, An squ
Twins' Hudson leaves game >>
Seattle, WA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Twins second baseman Orlando Hudson left
Saturday's game in the second inning.
Hudson suffered an apparent right ankle sprain.
Red Sox activate reliever Hideki Okajima from DL >>
ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. (AP) -The Boston Red Sox have activated reliever Hideki Okajima from the 15-day disabled list and optioned right-hander Michael Bowden to Triple-A Pawtucket.The moves were announced before Boston's game Saturday night at Tampa B
Kirk fires 63 to grab lead in Tennessee >>
Farragut, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chris Kirk fired a nine-under 63 Saturday to
grab a one-stroke lead after 54 holes of the Knoxville Sentinel Open.
Kirk completed three rounds at 15-under-par 201. He will go for his second win
of the season
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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