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07/11/2008 - Washington, DC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ronnie Belliard hit a pair of home runs and drove in five, while Tim Redding threw six shutout innings to help Washington crush Houston, 10-0, in the first of three games with the Astros.
Houston starter Roy Oswalt re-aggravated a hip injury and left the game after throwing one scoreless inning, and the Nationals' offense took advantage. Austin Kearns had two hits, including a two-run homer, while Cristian Guzman went 3-for-5 with a double for Washington, which has won two of three.
The run support helped Redding (7-3) pick up his first win and decision since a May 19 start against the Phillies. Redding allowed seven hits, but had no walks and struck out six.
Chad Paronto (0-1) took over for Oswalt, and allowed three runs on six hits in 2 1/3 frames to take the loss. Dave Borkowski surrendered seven runs in two innings for the Astros, who have lost four of five.
Houston had nine hits -- Kaz Matsui and Carlos Lee each had two -- but eight of them were singles. Matsui had a double for the team's only extra-base hit.
Paronto took the mound for the second inning, and the Nationals got to him almost immediately. After Jesus Flores hit a one-out single, Belliard clubbed the ball over the left field wall for a 2-0 lead.
In the third, Guzman and Kearns led off with back-to-back doubles to push one more run across, bringing up Dmitri Young. But after Young fouled off a pitch, he left the game with tightness in his lower back. As a result, Pete Orr pinch-hit and played at third base, while Belliard moved over to first.
Redding got into some jams -- Houston had runners on the corners in the first inning -- but found his way out of them, and in the fifth, Washington tacked on five runs to turn the game into a blowout.
Borkowski started on the mound and immediately gave up an infield single to Guzman, then walked Kearns. A sacrifice moved the runners over, and a walk to Kory Casto loaded the bases. After Flores singled to bring home Guzman and Kearns, Belliard blasted a three-run homer to center field, his ninth of the year, to boost Washington's lead to 8-0.
Redding worked a perfect top of the sixth, and Kearns' two-run homer in the bottom half completed the scoring. Steven Shell tossed three scoreless innings for the Nationals to finish the game and earn his first career save.
Game Notes
Oswalt was making his first start since June 30, when he came out with the same injury after six innings...On Friday, the Nationals recalled outfielder Ryan Langerhans from Triple-A Columbus, and optioned outfielder Roger Bernadina to Columbus...The Astros left eight runners on base, while the Nationals stranded five.
<< Tigers' Galarraga drops another heartbreaker to Twins
Detroit, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Glen Perkins kept the Tigers' bats off-balance
over 6 2/3 frames, as the Minnesota Twins edged Detroit, 3-2, in the second
installment of a four-game set from Comerica Park.
Perkins (6-2) allowed two runs
<< Hochevar, Royals edge M's
Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Luke Hochevar was effective on the mound
and David DeJesus drove in two runs, as the Kansas City Royals edged the
Seattle Mariners, 3-1, in the opener of a three-game set.
Hochevar (6-7) lasted s
<< Bland remains atop Edmonton Open leaderboard
Edmonton, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Adam Bland shot a one-under 70 on Friday to
remain in the lead after two rounds of the Edmonton Open.
Bland, who fired a course-record 63 on Thursday to take the first-round lead,
was through 36 holes at
<< They make it look so Easley! Mets keep rolling, edge Rox
Flushing, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Damion Easley's solo home run with two outs in
the bottom of the eighth inning was the difference, as the red-hot New York
Mets edged the Colorado Rockies, 2-1, in the opener of a three-game series at
Shea St
'Skins ink WR Kelly >>
Ashburn, VA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Washington Redskins agreed to terms with
one of their three second-round draft choices, wide receiver Malcolm Kelly, on
Friday.
The 51st overall selection, Kelly earned second-team All-Big XII honors a
Phillies edge D'Backs on Werth's 12th-inning single >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jayson Werth's game-winning RBI single in
the bottom of the 12th inning gave the Philadelphia Phillies a 6-5 victory
over the Arizona Diamondbacks in a back-and-forth opener of a three-game
series.
Rangers crush White Sox >>
Arlington, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Luis Mendoza hurled six solid innings, and
David Murphy and Chris Davis both homered as Texas downed Chicago, 7-2, in the
opener of a three-game set.
Mendoza (2-3), who was a disappointing 0-3 with a 10.9
Lions maul Blue Bombers >>
Winnipeg, MB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jarious Jackson threw for 340 yards and five
touchdowns while Geroy Simon racked up 192 receiving yards on seven catches,
two for touchdowns, as the British Columbia Lions dominated the Winnipeg Blue
Bombers
Matt Kenseth And Kevin Harvick Favorites To Take NASCAR Nextel Cup Championship
(September 15)—The NASCAR season has hit the homestretch with the opening event on this year’s Chase for the Cup taking place this weekend at the Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire International Speedway. With 10 races remaining to determine the Cup Series champion, leading online sportsbook MySportsbook.com today announced odds on all 10 Chase qualifying drivers capturing the NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship.
One of the largest sportsbook sites on the Internet, MySportsbook.com currently lists the top two drivers in the point standings as the early favorites to win the Nextel Cup. Entering the Chase for the Cup with a slim five-point lead in the point standings, 2003 NASCAR champ Matt Kenseth has been made a slight favorite to win his second Cup at 7/2 betting odds. 2001 Cup Rookie of the Year Kevin Harvick has betting odds listed at 5/2 and four-time NASCAR champion Jeff Gordon is listed at 6/1 to capture the Nextel Cup this year.
Hoping to follow in the footsteps of his legendary father who won six NASCAR titles, Dale Earnhardt Jr. stands at 8/1 to breakthrough with his first Cup victory. Staying with the family theme, MySportsbook.com lists 2005 Rookie of the Year Kyle Busch at 14/1 to succeed big brother Kurt’s 2004 NASCAR title. While Kasey Kahne was the final driver to qualify for the Chase with a third place finish last week, the oddsmakers give him a fighting chance at 10/1 mainly due to several mile-and-a-half tracks remaining on the schedule. Despite going winless on the NASCAR circuit this season, Jeff Burton enters the Chase at 5/1 to capture the Cup title. Meanwhile, rookie Denny Hamlin is 4/1 to win the championship, while veteran driver Mark Martin enters the Chase for the Cup as a 15/1 long shot to win his first NASCAR title in his 24th and final season.
MySportsbook.com will offer comprehensive Nascar betting lines on every race remaining on the Nextel Cup series including driver match-ups, props and odds to win each race. For a complete list of NASCAR odds, please visit www.MySportsbook.com.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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