2009 Sun Belt Tournament Preview

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/03/2009 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 33rd-annual Sun Belt Conference Tournament, which includes all 13 members, will begin at campus venues on Wednesday, before moving to Summit Arena for the final three rounds.

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers and Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans won the East and West Divisions, respectively, with identical 15-3 records. The Hilltoppers though, swept the Trojans during the regular season and were awarded the top seed in the tournament. Troy finished slightly behind WKU and UALR at 14-4, so it received the No.3 seed. The top three seeds earn a bye in the first round, while the rest of the league must battle for the right to move on to Hot Springs for the quarterfinals.

The North Texas Mean Green claimed the fourth seed with an 11-7 finish and will host 13th-seeded Florida Atlantic, which went just 2-16 in league play. The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders and South Alabama Jaguars both had 10-8 league records and after the tie-breaker scenario was worked out, it was the Raiders who landed the fifth seed. MT will take on 12th-seeded Arkansas State, which finished 5-13, while the sixth-seeded Jaguars will entertain the 11th- seeded New Orleans Privateers after their 6-12 showing. The UL-Monroe Warhawks also recorded a 6-12 ledger, but owned the tie-breaker with New Orleans and were given the 10th seed. The Warhawks will clash with the Denver Pioneers, who earned the seventh seed with an even 9-9 performance. The UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns and Florida International Golden Panthers both ended with 7-11 records, but tie-breaker went to the Cajuns and they get to host the Panthers in the first round.

The ninth-seeded Panthers versus the eighth-seeded Cajuns are one of five first round games on tap for Wednesday. In league games, ULL went 6-3 at home compared to 1-8 on the road, so it was important that the Cajuns won the tie- breaker with FIU in order to host this bout. ULL has had great success in this event, going 24-12 all-time and capturing five titles. FIU, on the other hand, is just 5-9 lifetime in the tourney and is in search of its first championship.

The 13th-seeded Owls bring a five-game losing streak to Denton, where they will take on the fourth-seeded Mean Green in the first round. FAU is 0-17 on the road this season, while North Texas owns an 11-4 mark at home. The Mean Green won its lone title in this tourney in 2007, and the Owls have gone 2-2 in their only two appearances.

The fifth-seeded Blue Raiders welcome the 12th-seeded Red Wolves to Murfreesboro for a first-round match up on Wednesday. MT won the lone meeting with ASU during the season and has gone 6-3 in conference home games. The Blue Raiders have posted a 10-8 mark in this tourney, including a 67-57 loss to Western Kentucky in the finals last season. ASU won its lone title in 1999, but it enters the postseason riding a lengthy nine-game slide.

After earning the top seed last season, the Jaguars had to settle for the sixth spot and a first-round home game against 11th-seeded New Orleans this year. USA is one of the most decorated teams in the SBC, as it has won the tourney title on five occasions, most recently in 2006. The Privateers claimed their second championship in 1996, but they most likely won't get past the first round this season considering their 0-9 record on the road in league games.

The seventh-seeded Pioneers and 10th-seeded Warhawks will meet in Colorado in first-round action on Wednesday as well. Denver boasts an 11-3 home ledger, while ULM sports a poor 2-11 road mark. Neither team has won a title in this event, but the Pioneers did reach the finals in 2005, losing out to ULL.

Top-seeded WKU will start off quarterfinal round play on Sunday, as it awaits the winner of the ULL/FIU matchup. The Toppers defeated MT in their finale to wrap up the SBC regular-season title, the program's 41st league championship (regular season and tournament titles). WKU won its unprecedented sixth SBC Tournament title last season as a third seed and is 34-20 all-time in this event.

Muck like WKU, second-seed UALR will be awaiting the arrival of its quarterfinal round opponent at Summit Arena on Sunday. The Trojans will face off against the survivor of the ULM/Denver contest. UALR recorded a school- record 15 SBC wins this season on its way to the program's fourth West Division title in six years. The Trojans also reached the 20-win plateau for the second straight season, a feat they hadn't accomplished since the 1988-89 and 1989-90 campaigns. UALR though, is still looking for that elusive first title despite winning 15 games in this tourney.

The quarterfinal round will conclude with third-seeded Troy taking on either New Orleans or South Alabama on Sunday. The Trojans ripped off wins in 12 of their last 13 outings, although a heart-breaking, 87-86, loss to FIU on February 19th ultimately cost them a share of the league crown. Still, the run pushed Troy to 19-11 overall, marking its best record since the 2003-04 season.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.

Big East Conference odds

Work left to do: Villanova, Syracuse, DePaul, West Virginia, Providence

Notre Dame and Louisville appear to have done enough to make the move, so we'll make them locks. The Cardinals, despite a modest RPI, are trending way up and have clinched at least a tie for third in the Big East, which should be more than enough with their pair of big road wins. Villanova got back to .500 and gets back to more solid footing. Syracuse got a very important road win and crippled a fellow contender in the process. West Virginia's fate could be in its hands Tuesday at Pitt.

Work left to do:

Villanova [18-9 (7-7), RPI: 21, SOS: 5] Pounded Rutgers to get back to .500. If Cats can get their last two (at UConn, vs. Syracuse), that should be enough with strong computer numbers and a host of wins away from The Pavilion. The Cats have beaten Texas and swept the Big 5 (never easy in Philly), but have a couple of losses to bubble teams (Xavier, Drexel), too. I still think they'll be OK, possibly even at 8-8.

Syracuse [20-8 (9-5), RPI: 53, SOS: 62] History says 10 wins will be plenty, but it might be hard for the Orange to get that last one with a final two vs. G'town, which is trying to win the league title, and at Villanova, which will be desperate for a W. The relative lack of nonconference heft and the weak computer numbers are still concerns, but the Orange have won four in a row and got a very, very big win at Providence on Saturday.

DePaul [16-12 (8-7), RPI: 54, SOS: 18] Beat Cincy and should get past South Florida to get to 9-7, but then what? They have beaten Kansas and Cal (right after the DeVon Hardin injury) earlier this season, but also have lost to Bradley and Purdue, among others. They'll likely need a couple of BE tourney wins, too, but we'll see ...

West Virginia [19-7 (8-6), RPI: 58, SOS: 125] The game at Pitt on Tuesday night could decide the Mountaineers' fate (barring a deep tournament run). They can still get to 9-7 in the Big East without it by beating Cincinnati, but the nine wins would be against UConn, Villanova, St. John's, South Florida, DePaul, Rutgers, Seton Hall twice and the Bearcats. Beating bubble foes is fine, but where's the beef? Outside of beating PG-less UCLA in nonconference play (still a top quality win), there's not a lot to fall back on (besides maybe NC State). WVU vs. Syracuse would be an interesting debate, as the teams don't play in the Big East regular season. WVU has the best win, but Cuse has played the much better schedule.

Providence [17-10 (7-7), RPI: 70, SOS: 33] The Friars likely saw their at-large hopes die at home in the four-point loss to Syracuse, barring an unexpected run to the Big East semis or more. The RPI, bad already, won't be helped by playing St. John's and South Florida in the final two league games.

For more March Madness odds go to MySportsbook.com

For more College Basketball betting lines go to BettingExpress.com

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com - this sportsbook accepts credit cards.