Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting
Lawrence, KS (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tyshawn Taylor had 28 points and six assists as No. 7 Kansas downed previously unbeaten No. 3 Baylor, 92-74, in Big 12 action. Thomas Robinson had 27 points and 14 rebounds, Elijah Johnson and Travis Releford each added 11 points while Jeff Withey had 10 points and 10 boards for the Jayhawks (15-3, 5-0 Big 12), who have won eight straight.
Syracuse and Murray State remain the only unbeaten schools in Division I basketball.
Queens, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jamal Branch has transferred from Texas A&M to St. John's. Branch, who appeared in 11 games for the Aggies in the fall of 2011, can begin practicing with the Red Storm but cannot play until December of 2012.
Branch averaged 4.2 points, 2.5 assists and 2.2 rebounds while playing 18.6 minutes during his brief stay at Texas A&M. He played against St. John's during the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic in November and scored seven points with five rebounds in 24 minutes.
The Wolverines hold a 93-74 advantage in a series that dates back more than a century to 1909. Last season Michigan took both contests, the first being a 61-57 decision on the road, and then the first week of March it was a 70-63 triumph at home.
Michigan State led by as many as nine points in the first half at Welsh-Ryan Arena versus Northwestern over the weekend, but in the final minutes of the period the momentum swung in favor of the Wildcats who eventually claimed the seven-point win. Keith Appling scored a team-best 17 points in 36 minutes for the visitors, but he shot just 4-of-13 from the floor and missed all five of his three-point tries. Draymond Green, accurate on 4-of-5 from three-point range, tallied 14 points and also made an impact in the paint with 14 rebounds as well. In addition to proving himself a worthy perimeter shooter at 40.7 percent, Green has forced opposing defenses to pick their poison because he is also leading the Spartans on the glass with 10.1 rpg as well. Scoring 15.8 ppg Green, who is second on the unit with 61 assists and paces MSU in both blocks (21) and steals (27), is one of only a few players in the nation who is averaging a double-double. Appling checks in with 12.9 ppg and is the only one ahead of Green in the passing department with his 69 dishes through 18 games.
Arkansas's 13-4 overall record has given it its best start since the 2007-2008 campaign as first-year head coach Mike Anderson has infused a winning attitude back into the program. The Razorbacks improved to 2-1 in SEC play with a 69-60 win over LSU on Saturday, which was their eighth win in nine outings. Not only will Arkansas be attempting to hand the Wildcats their first conference loss of the year, it is also seeking its first road victory of the year in this one. A win would have an impact on the SEC standings, as the Razorbacks are tied for third place as they trail Vanderbilt and the Wildcats by one game.
John Calipari has won 45 straight at Rupp Arena since taking over the helm, which is the longest home-winning streak in the nation. Kentucky survived a close call with Tennessee its last time out, as it won 65-62 to make its overall record 17-1 and its SEC mark a perfect 3-0. Kentucky has outscored its opponents by a league-best 20.4 ppg this season, The Wildcats' high-powered offense is ranked second in the league with an average of 79.3 ppg, on a conference leading 48.3 percent shooting from the field. Kentucky is atop the SEC standings in rebounding margin and blocked shots as well.
The Wildcats have been racking up blocked shots behind Anthony Davis' NCAA leading average of 4.6 per game. Davis is just one block away from the program's single season record of 83. The freshman forward has contributed in other aspects as well, as he has tallied nine double-doubles already. Terrance Jones, Doron Lamb, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and Marquis Teague all own scoring averages in double figures and have the ability to step into the spotlight and take over games which makes the Wildcats a nearly impossible team to stop.
Jason Clark is the go-to-guy for Georgetown so far. The senior guard leads the team in scoring, and seems to enjoy traveling as he carries an average of 17.6 ppg on 51.2 percent field goal shooting in games outside of Washington D.C. Hollis Thompson has been on a roll lately for the Hoyas. The junior forward has averaged 17.5 ppg in his last four games, which has brought his season total of double-digit outings to 15. Despite being the tallest player on the roster, Henry Sims is Georgetown's top assist man with 3.7 apg. Sims is the only player in the Big East in the top 15 in both assists and blocks.
Cleveland Melvin and Brandon Young combine to make one of the top scoring duos in the Big East. Each have scored at least 20 points on five different occasions and they combined to average 35.7 ppg heading into the Louisville game. Against the Cardinals, Young scored 14 and Melvin finished with just eight points. The team's third leading scorer, Jeremiah Kelly, has been in a funk as of late. Kelly has made just 8-of-26 attempts from the field in his last three outings combined.
<<
FCS Players Leaves Defensive Against End
<<
Blind Luck Grace Disable Edge At Luck
<<
Aoki Leads Giants Down Perkins
Lake City Boosts Paul In Percent >>
Points Joins Season From Blazers >>
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting